The United States has imposed new tariffs, impacting India’s agricultural exports. This situation puts sectors like basmati rice, spices, fruits, vegetables, and packaged foods at risk, potentially costing billions of dollars. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to protect Indian farmers, even at personal cost. This challenge, however, presents an opportunity for India to modernise its farming practices and achieve a “new Green Revolution.”
Historically, Indian agriculture has progressed slowly since the initial Green Revolution. The current tariffs, imposed by the US, highlight the vulnerability of India’s agricultural trade. India’s export of key products, valued at over $6 billion, will likely suffer, benefiting neighbouring countries. This economic pressure could also fuel domestic protests, which the Prime Minister might frame as foreign interference.
Prime Minister Modi’s defiance against the US tariffs is not necessarily a personal political risk. India often unites behind its leader when facing external pressure, as seen when Indira Gandhi stood up to the US. The real personal risk for Modi would come from implementing bold reforms that could revolutionise Indian farming, doubling farmer incomes and making them globally competitive.
The legacy of M.S. Swaminathan, a key figure in India’s first Green Revolution, is being remembered. In the 1960s, India faced humiliation due to food shortages, reliant on foreign aid. Swaminathan, along with Norman Borlaug, introduced high-yielding varieties of wheat and rice, transforming India into a food-secure nation. This breakthrough faced criticism from activists and communists, who feared hybrid seeds and mechanisation would benefit only wealthy farmers.
Prime Minister Indira Gandhi took a significant risk in 1966 by allowing the import of 18,000 tonnes of hybrid seeds. Despite potential risks, her decision led to India’s freedom from hunger. Bold leadership often involves taking calculated risks during peacetime, not just during crises.
India’s economic reforms in 1991, spurred by a balance of payments crisis, and in 1999, following Pokhran-2 sanctions, transformed industries. However, the past two decades have seen complacency, with India focusing on growth rates rather than deep reforms. Experts have long called for reforms in manufacturing, infrastructure, and trade policies.
Indian farming, while stable, has not kept pace with global advancements. The current US tariffs underscore the need for a paradigm shift. The Vajpayee government’s decision to allow Bt cotton seeds in 2002, despite opposition, led to a significant increase in cotton production and exports. India’s cotton yield nearly doubled, making it a major exporter. However, India has since fallen behind, with yields declining and reliance on imports increasing.
The success of Bt cotton highlights the potential of genetically modified (GM) seeds. India’s yields for crops like soya bean and corn are far below global averages. The nation imports edible oils and pulses worth billions, alongside fertilisers, increasing dependence on foreign suppliers.
The fear surrounding GM seeds today mirrors the scepticism faced by hybrid seeds in the 1960s. Globally, 78 countries cultivate GM seeds, with China adopting them recently. India’s agricultural output, despite vast arable land, lags behind China’s, which has less land but higher production.
Many countries, including China, have shifted farm support to direct benefit transfers, reducing subsidies for fertilisers, electricity, and minimum support prices (MSP). India, however, spends a significant portion of its agriculture budget on subsidies, leading to shortages, black markets, and inefficiency.
Subsidised fertilisers and free electricity distort the power sector, impacting state utilities. Reforming these areas, especially during this trade war, is crucial for India’s sovereignty and self-reliance. Reforming agriculture is challenging, as demonstrated by the withdrawal of previous farm bills. With over 50% of voters linked to farming, any change carries political risk. However, to truly benefit the nation and its farmers, Prime Minister Modi must consider these reforms, turning the current trade crisis into an opportunity for a new Green Revolution.