The United States’ farming sector is going through a tough time. New research shows a growing trade deficit, meaning the US is importing more farm goods than it’s exporting. At the same time, a government shutdown has stopped important market information from being released. These two problems are causing a lot of uncertainty for farmers and global traders. They also lead to supply issues and make it harder for US farmers to compete.
A study from the University of Illinois found that the US, which used to be a major farm exporter, is now facing a trade deficit. This is expected to reach $49 billion by the end of 2025. While this is happening, a long government shutdown has paused the release of key agricultural reports. These reports give vital updates on how much is being produced, exported, and sold. This is happening at a very important time, during the autumn harvest.
These issues, fewer exports and missing data, highlight the challenges American agriculture is facing. Trade disputes, especially with China, are disrupting supply chains and making global markets unsure. Farmers are finding it harder to sell their products overseas.
**Exports Stagnate, Deficit Widens**
Researchers from the University of Illinois and Texas Tech University found that while the US still produces a lot of important crops like corn, soybeans, and cotton, its exports have stopped growing. In recent years, the US has changed from exporting more farm goods than it imports to importing more. This has not happened for many decades.
The study points to ongoing trade disputes, changes in what the world wants to buy, and stronger competition from countries like Brazil, Canada, Australia, and Ukraine. US farmers are still productive, but other countries have become more efficient and have better ways to get their products to market.
Brazil, for example, has become the world’s biggest exporter of soybeans. It now supplies a large part of what China used to buy from American farmers. The research states that even though a trade deal in 2020 briefly helped US farm trade with China, exports have fallen again. China has significantly reduced its purchases of US soybeans, corn, cotton, and sorghum. Instead, it is buying from South American countries.
Experts expect that exports of these main crops will continue to fall, with little chance of improvement, even if trade rules change.
**Impact of the U.S.-China Trade Conflict**
The trade problems between the US and China have cost American farmers billions of dollars. Just between 2017 and 2018, the value of US soybean exports to China dropped by 73%. Wheat and corn exports also saw large decreases. Overall, agricultural exports to China fell by about $14 billion during that period.
These trade tensions have become worse this year. China has recently added new port fees for ships linked to the US. This is similar to charges the US has placed on Chinese ships. These new fees, starting in mid-October, will affect ships owned or operated by US companies. They could increase shipping costs and make agricultural trade even more difficult.
Experts believe this move shows China is still unhappy with the US trade policies. It also suggests that China will continue to buy fewer farm goods from the US. These policies, along with tariffs and other trade barriers, are expected to worsen the agricultural trade imbalance and make American products less competitive in global markets.
**Farmers and Traders Hit by Data Blackout**
On top of the trade issues, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has stopped releasing important reports because of the government shutdown. These include weekly export sales, crop progress updates, and the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). The absence of the USDA means the industry has lost the main source of data used to set prices, manage risks, and trade commodities like corn, soybeans, and livestock.
The shutdown has disrupted normal trading patterns during a crucial part of the growing season. Without official numbers on harvest progress, yields, or export volumes, traders are using satellite images, private estimates, and talking to farmers to guess market trends. Many in the industry feel like they are “flying blind,” with less information and more confusion.
Big companies like Cargill and ADM, which have their own data systems, might have an advantage over smaller traders who rely on the USDA’s public information. Trading volumes in grain futures have decreased because investors are hesitant to make deals without official data. Without the USDA’s reliable numbers, analysts worry about prices being unfairly influenced and markets becoming more unpredictable once the data releases start again.
**Rising Risks and Global Ripples**
These two problems – a growing trade deficit and a lack of official data – have exposed weaknesses in the US agricultural system. Farmers are facing lower prices, less demand from other countries, and more uncertainty about future policies and market access. Many are also dealing with losses from bad weather and higher costs for supplies.
Internationally, traders in other parts of the world may be less affected because they have other sources of information. However, for the US, the lack of timely and clear data weakens its position as a key source of agricultural information globally. The longer the shutdown continues, the harder it will be to restore trust in market information and trading systems.
Analysts warn that when data starts being released again, differences between private estimates and official figures could cause sudden price changes.
**Outlook**
The trade deficit is likely to continue beyond 2025 as production and trade patterns change. With countries like Brazil increasing their ability to export, it might be very hard for the US to regain its previous market share, especially in China.
As leaders from the US and China prepare to meet, the agricultural sector will be watching for any signs of improvement in trade relations. However, given the existing tariffs, fees, and loss of trust, a quick recovery in trade is not expected. American farmers and traders are in a difficult situation, facing less demand from abroad and a lack of essential data at home. The US farm economy is navigating an uncertain path, with its strong global position under threat.