India has been experiencing very unusual weather patterns recently. We’ve seen extreme floods, sudden cloudbursts, and strong cyclones like Biparjoy in 2023. These events are breaking all normal weather predictions. So, is this all nature’s doing, or is something man-made behind it?
Himachal Pradesh reported many cloudbursts and flash floods this year. Punjab received much more rain than usual, with floods comparable to the severe ones in 1988. India had its rainiest June and second wettest monsoon in the last 50 years. Floods in Rajasthan caused many deaths and displaced thousands. Gujarat also saw its highest rainfall in 10 years. Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir have faced the worst of erratic monsoons, cloudbursts, and flash floods. The Kedarnath disaster in 2013 was a terrible example.
The monsoon has been acting strangely. In 2023, India experienced its driest August in over 120 years. Himachal Pradesh had its driest October in 2024, and the southern peninsula had its sixth driest October in 123 years in 2023. Rainfall was over 60% below normal due to a weak monsoon and Cyclone Hamoon. Even Sohra in Meghalaya, known as the wettest place on Earth, received about a third of the rain it did last June.
Winters have also been unusually warm in the Himalayan regions, and the timing of hot and cold seasons has shifted across India. States like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and Rajasthan have reported temperatures over 50 degrees Celsius for the past few years. Shorter, warmer winters confuse both people and plants. This has led to significant crop losses in Punjab, with wheat damaged by excessive heat. Erratic rains across the country are also bringing new diseases and pests, hurting our food security.
Is this rapid and strange climate change natural? While human activities like burning fossil fuels, industrial farming, and deforestation contribute to global warming, extreme weather events like El Niño make us question if these are just natural reactions to human impact.
India’s government has previously hinted at external influences. In 2016, the late Environment Minister Anil Madhav Dave mentioned the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) developed by the USA. He stated that HAARP could potentially cause global warming by striking the upper atmosphere with focused energy beams.
There’s a global convention from 1978 prohibiting the hostile use of environmental modification techniques, which India and the USA have signed. This shows that nations possess the technology to modify weather, potentially using it as a weapon.
China, a partial signatory to this convention, claims it only applies to Hong Kong and Macao. China invests billions in advanced weather modification technology. It reportedly spent US$1.34 billion between 2012-2017 on its weather modification programme, launching large machines in the Tibetan Plateau. China claims to have a fully functional weather modification system by 2025.
Modern weather modification goes beyond simple cloud seeding. While places like Dubai use cloud seeding, China is allegedly using weather modification as a weapon. Dubai experienced cloudbursts and floods after cloud seeding, showing how it can go wrong. There are suspicions that China may have used weather modification during the Galwan Valley clashes to create flash floods and disrupt Indian operations.
During the Vietnam War, the USA used ‘Operation Popeye’ to increase rainfall and make the terrain difficult for enemies. China’s ‘Tianhe’ (Sky River) project is believed to divert water vapour, potentially increasing rainfall by billions of cubic meters annually. There are also concerns about China ‘stealing’ rain and snow from neighbouring countries like India, impacting our agriculture and water resources.
India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh stated in 2024 that climate change in India is a national security issue, not just a weather phenomenon. He pointed out that border states in the Himalayas have seen an increase in natural disasters, suggesting a link to neighbouring activities.
Geo-engineering and weather modification are real. China has a significant advantage in this technology, and India currently lacks defence or offensive capabilities. Whether recent extreme weather events are geo-engineered is hard to confirm as India lacks the measurement tools. However, it is crucial for Indian defence establishments to invest in early warning systems, ground preparations, and defence capabilities to protect the nation from potential geo-engineered climate events in the future.