US President Donald Trump’s recent statement about stopping soybean oil imports from China is unlikely to cause major changes for Beijing, according to industry experts. This comes as China has not bought any US soybeans this season, putting pressure on soybean prices. Prices are currently around $10 per bushel.
China has completely stopped buying US soybeans during their peak harvest season for the first time in over twenty years. This is happening even though US soybeans are still cheaper than those from South America. Analysts believe this is a strategic move by China, which has been preparing to rely less on US agricultural products since the trade disputes began in 2018.
While ignoring US soybeans, China has been buying from Brazil, even at a higher price. Trade experts suggest China planned for this shift, and President Trump’s second term in office has provided a perfect opportunity for this strategy. When the trade war started in January 2018, China began making long-term plans to respond to US tariffs on Chinese goods. A key focus was on agricultural imports from the US.
Brazil’s soybean production has significantly increased. In the 2015-16 season, Brazil produced 95.7 million tonnes (mt). This rose to 114 mt in 2016-17. For the 2025-26 season, production is expected to reach a record 175 mt. Meanwhile, US soybean production has remained stable, around 116-117 mt. US soybean exports also saw a record high of 61.66 mt in the 2020-21 season but are expected to drop to a six-year low of 45.86 mt in the 2025-26 season.
Brazil’s exports are projected to be 112 mt in the 2025-26 season, up from 108 mt a year ago. China has actively supported Brazil’s growing soybean exports. They have invested heavily in improving Brazil’s infrastructure, including ports and railways. For example, Kofco is investing $285 million in a new export terminal at the Port of Santos. Chinese firms are also improving the Port of São Luís. These investments mean faster transportation of soybeans from farms to ports. The time to load soybeans from Brazil has reduced from 120 days to 60 days.
This situation has benefited Brazilian farmers, who have a guaranteed market and receive premium prices. However, US farmers are facing disadvantages. Farmers are concerned and frustrated as they harvest a large soybean crop with limited buyers. Some farmers are storing their crops, hoping for better prices later, while others worry about their financial survival.
The American Soybean Association has called the situation ‘dire’ for the industry. Farmers are dealing with rising costs for seeds, fertilizers, and other inputs, along with falling prices and restricted market access. Many US farm groups have expressed their worries to government leaders and are urging immediate trade talks to regain access to the Chinese market.
While the US government might offer financial support to farmers, some experts believe it might be too late if a trade agreement is reached now. They suggest that other markets cannot fully absorb the volume of soybeans China used to buy from the US. China’s absence from the US market has led to historically low soybean prices on commodity exchanges.
On the other hand, China is finding new buyers for its soybean oil. In July, China sold over 1.2 lakh tonnes of soybean oil to India at a discounted price. China is the world’s largest producer of soybean oil, with production expected to increase in the coming seasons. While the US has banned imports of Chinese soybean oil, analysts suggest other countries might buy it for use in biofuels. The US is also increasing its soybean crushing to meet biofuel demand.