Indian farmers may face higher costs for fertilizers this upcoming rabi (winter) season. China, a major global supplier, has stopped exporting urea and specialty fertilizers from October 15. This decision affects not only India but also other countries worldwide. China had only recently resumed fertilizer exports in May after a period of increased inspections.
The export suspension includes key products like Technical Monoammonium Phosphate (TMAP) and urea-solution products such as AdBlue. It also covers common fertilizers like Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) and urea. “China has closed the export window from October 15 not only for India but the world market,” said Rajib Chakraborty, president of the Soluble Fertilizer Industry Association (SFIA), to news agency PTI. He expects this suspension to last for about five to six months.
India relies heavily on China for its specialty fertilizers. Around 95 percent of the country’s needs for products like TMAP and AdBlue are imported from China. Mr. Chakraborty warns that prices for these specialty fertilizers, which are already high, could increase by another 10–15 percent due to these export restrictions.
India uses approximately 250,000 tonnes of specialty fertilizers each year. A significant portion, about 60–65 percent, is used during the rabi season, which typically runs from October to March. While meeting the immediate demand for the current rabi season should not be a major issue, as traders have already secured some supplies through international agencies, the cost for farmers is expected to rise.
The real concern, according to Mr. Chakraborty, would be if China’s export curbs continue beyond March 2026. This could impact the availability and price of fertilizers for future seasons. He also noted that the current rabi season might extend until March due to good water availability, potentially increasing the demand for fertilizers.
While India does have alternative sources for some fertilizers, such as South Africa, Chile, and Croatia, these options are limited to only one or two specific products. The dependence on China for a wide range of specialty fertilizers makes this export suspension a significant development for Indian agriculture.